Currency Market Report 27th September 2010 - 9/28/2010
Last week, saw the GBP/EUR currency pair plummet from a heigh of 1.2001 on Monday, to as low as 1.1658 on Wednesday. This change in rate equates to almost 3%, a difference of €3430, between the two rates, when you exchange £100,000. The pair increased slightly as we came to the end of the week, jumping as high as 1.1792 Friday afternoon. This week emphasises the volatility of the market, highlighting its daily unpredictability and how difficult it is to judge where it will lie as little as a 2 hours in the future.
Data released Monday morning underlined an unfortunate start for the UK economy, with lower than expected Mortgage Approvals. At 45,000; this figure is 2,000 less than its equivalent month last year, which may be a reason for the immediate decline in Sterling’s strength from the get-go. Midweek saw a brighter horizon for the UK, with the Wednesday morning release of the minutes of the BoE MPC meetings, which showed that the nominal GDP had increased by 1.7% on the previous quarter. This may explain the increase in rates throughout the end of the week, as growth in the economy boosts the value of the GBP.
The week to come has important data to be released on Tuesday with the UK’s GDP Q2 figures to be made public. The recent trend has been on the increase, with expectations to be around 1.2%, however if statistics are lower than anticipated or even negative, this corresponds to a negative effect on the Pound, therefore, leading to drops in Sterling’s currency pairings.
Thursday sees the publishing of German Unemployment Figures. This time last year, the figure was comparatively low at 7.6%. This time around, a figure higher will imply poor economic growth within Germany, in turn, decreasing the strength of the EUR. This may lead to an increase in the GBP/EUR pair.
Evidently, there is data to support an increase or decrease in the GBP/EUR rate this week. This emphasises the significance of remaining in close contact with your account manager here at FCG. Market volatility remains a certainty so it is important to note that small changes in exchange rates can lead to huge differences in transactions and utilising the knowledge and understanding at Foremost can help to save you thousands of Pounds.
Last week saw further volatility for the Dollar against both the Euro and Sterling following negative economic news from the US. The UK also posted negative data meaning the biggest beneficiary was the Eurozone as it rallied to a five month high against the Dollar reaching 1.3497. From a UK perspective the Pound managed a small gain from an opening figure of 1.5653 to a week high on Friday of 1.5846.
The downturn for the US came following the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates at the record low of 0.25%, a level now seen in place for 21 months. While this decision was widely expected, and on its own may have done little to scare investors away form the safe haven currency, it was the announcement that the door was still open for further additions to their quantitative easing program that caused uncertainty for the greenback.
As we have seen in the past any mention of QE has caused an economies currency to drop representing attractive buying levels, and close contact with your account manager here at FCG can put you in the best position to act on spikes when they become available. If you have yet to open a trading facility you can do so by clicking here and an experienced currency trader will be in touch to provide a consultation on your individual requirement.
The week ahead sees a host of data releases with the most important likely to be consumer confidence figures for both the US and UK on Tuesday and Thursday respectively. Forecasts suggest both readings will be lower than the previous month which could cause weakness for the Pound and Dollar. Other news of note will be the US unemployment claims also on Thursday and Manufacturing PMI for the UK and US posted Friday. For more information on how these releases could affect your requirement see a more detailed description in the week ahead section later in this report, or call free today on 0800 781 0601 to speak to one of our dedicated currency traders here at FCG.
A dovish outlook from the Swiss National Bank at the beginning of the week sent the Alpine Unit tumbling as it raised the prospect of intervention. The statements took on added weight following the Bank of Japan’s recent efforts to de-value the yen, as despite being situated across the globe, both central banks’ face similar issues, reinforcing the uncertain state of the global economy.
Concerns over future growth have predictably fuelled support for the safe haven currencies as investors exercise their right to risk aversion. The Swiss Franc has appreciated this past week to a level which is threatening demand for exports and importing deflation, which is a major threat to growth.
Further appreciation can’t be ruled out, especially if a broader flight to safety occurs with investors heading for sanctuary in the Franc. Additionally, and of particular relevance to British buyers of CHF, there are still risks that the Bank of England could add to their stimulus efforts, which may be a weighing factor for GBP/CHF, leading to a resumption of the bearish trend.
Sticky inflation in the U.K. and signs that growth is sustaining makes a case for an MPC rate hike, although this is seemingly not as obvious to the MPC members as it is to the rest of the financial world.
More importantly however, Swiss National Bank intervention is the greatest case for a more positive Alpine position, which makes buying CHF a low risk proposition with equal potential for reward. If you are looking to purchase CHF it may be the case that now is the best time to do so depending on your time scale. In order to ensure you attain the best possible rate of exchange for your purchase, stay in contact with your account manager here at FCG for an up to the minute evaluation and informed opinion of the markets.
This week’s data
Below we list the main data releases that may have an impact on exchange rates. The currency market has been very volatile in recent weeks, as figures suggest the global recession is not over, and many economies face real fears of dipping back into recession.
In these volatile times, data becomes even more important than usual, as markets react to signs of economic contraction or expansion. It’s impossible to predict how these will affect rates, but be sure that they will have an impact if the data releases below are different from forecast.
Remember, you now can have a free consultation with one of our currency experts. This can help you understand what effect these data releases can have, and help you make an informed decision on when to trade, and which type of contract is best for you.
Contact us today to discuss your requirements, and make the first step to taking advantage of our commercial exchange rates that are up to 6% better than available at banks or other financial institutions.
Markets will be reacting to yesterday evenings Hometrack Housing prices, which showed that house prices fell by 0.4% month on month, the biggest fall in 18 months. Apart from that the only data of note is money supply data from the EU. This is an inflation indicator, so higher than expected figures may strengthen the Euro and push GBP/EUR rates down.
Germany today releases Retail Sales and Consumer Prices. Both of these will give an indication of the economy, and as Germany is the largest economy in the EU, it can affect the value of the Euro.
From the UK, GDP data will likely have an impact on Sterling. We expect a 1.2% figure – less than this expect exchange rates to fall, more than this expect them to climb.
Consumer Confidence and House price data from the US comes out at 3pm.
For the UK, Mortgage approvals and money supply is the main data of note. It may affect the Pound, but the GDP figures from Tuesday will still likely be having the biggest impact on rates.
In the EU, Industrial and Economic confidence measures are released. The EU economy has been performing better than expected recently, and further good numbers may push GBP/EUR lower.
Markets will be reacting to the UK consumer confidence figures released overnight. German and US Unemployment will also impact on Euro and Dollar rates.
Canada and the USA both release GDP figures today. GDP is considered a broad measure of economic health. If different from forecast, GBP/CAD and GBP/USD may face volatility. Jobless claims in the US are also released today.
Inflation measures are the order of the day today. UK, EU and Germany all release data that will show how inflation is faring in the relative economies. High inflation means a chance of higher interest rates, which can strengthen the currency concerned and make it more expensive to purchase. Unemployment from the EU may also have an effect on GBP/EUR rates today.
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